Real Madrid-Man City Preview: The Balance of Power Lies at Stake
Note: This story was originally published in the spring of 2020
Less than one month from now, the knockout stages of the Champions League will be underway. Among the host of spine-tingling Round of 16 fixtures, the most consequential is the one that kicks off when Manchester City, back-to-back Premier League winners, visit 13-time champions Real Madrid for the first leg at the Bernabéu next month.
You can picture the headlines already if the favorites on paper go through: Europe’s Old Guard Vanquished, Pep Victorious on Madrid Return, Are City Finally Primed to Win it All?
It would be unwise, however, to count out Zinedine Zidane’s side. Madrid have played quietly attractive football this season, even if they have struggled to score goals at times. Zidane has his team tied for the top spot in La Liga thanks in part to two resurgent centre-backs (Ramos and Varane) and a goalkeeper that is coming good this season (Courtois). Meanwhile, their link-up play going forward has been solid with new players such as Fede Valverde and established ones like Karim Benzema getting in on the act of creating chances and scoring goals. Exciting individual talents like Rodrygo, Vinicius, and Hazard (expected to return from injury) combined with veterans like Modric, Kroos, and Marcelo mean this Madrid side should not be considered out until they are officially eliminated.
On the other hand, City are the favorites, and rightly so. Any team with Kevin De Bruyne in the form that he is in right now has an automatic leg up on virtually any other club on the planet. Kroos, Modric, Valverde, Isco, and Casmeiro are fine players, but surely no midfield is better than City’s (Rodri/Gundogan/Fernandinho, Foden/Silva, De Bruyne) when KDB is running the show. There will be an embarrassment of riches to choose from up top (Sterling, Jesus, Mahrez, Bernardo, Aguero, etc.), and crucially, the defense should receive a boost from the return of Aymeric Laporte. While Pep has tinkered with his philosophy in Manchester, there are still some fundamentals we can expect from a Guardiola side. They will look to play attacking football by dominating possession and relentlessly creating quality chances. Very few sides have the ability to counter well enough to create an edge over this style of play at its best.
But City will need to be at their best. Two years ago in the Round of 16, a Madrid side that looked past their peak came up against another member of Europe’s nouveau riche, Paris-Saint Germain, whose domestic form had been terrific, led by the likes of Neymar, Cavani, and Mbappé . PSG controlled the first 70–80 minutes at the Bernabéu, but saw the tie slip away from them as a result of an inability to finish off chances and late goals from CR7 and Marcelo. That Madrid side ended up grinding out wins over Juventus, Bayern Munich, and Liverpool en route to claiming their third straight Champions League crown. While Madrid’s main man then may now be gone, the threat they pose as the more established club is still a very real one.
If Guardiola avoids conservatism and City finish off their chances, they may well gain more than just a berth in the quarterfinals of this year’s competition. It is not an exaggeration to say that the balance of power in European football lies at stake. Nearly nine months ago, Liverpool did what many thought was impossible when they overturned a 3–0 deficit to Barcelona in the semifinals and knocked out the Catalan giants. It was a monumental victory not just because of the stage and the quality of the opposition, but also because, on a more fundamental level, it gave the club and the fans the belief that they belonged up there again, as Europe’s best. What City are struggling against is the weight of history. In the past eleven years, Madrid and Barcelona have won 7 Champions Leagues, and the winner in each of the other 4 seasons went through one of them in the semifinals en route to the title. Pep has taken City to new domestic heights, but the club’s maiden Champions League triumph has eluded their grasp. If City are able to get through the tough test that is this tie, it could be the beginning of a glorious run in Europe by an English side for the second straight year, and cement Guardiola’s legacy.
Originally published at http://www.gjt.zcs.mybluehost.me on January 24, 2020.
